Here’s a rundown of what we can expect (if anything) from the Academy Awards based on the nominations and winners of the SAG awards:
Actor – SAG & Oscar 75% Match Rate
The SAG and Oscar have matched the Best Actor winner for the last 6 years in a row. However, they didn’t match the 4 years prior.
When they don’t match, it’s either a close race (Day-Lewis for Gangs of New York vs. Adrien Brody for The Pianist) or a category issue, like Benicio del Toro who won the SAG lead and Oscar supporting for Traffic. Other than that, every SAG winner was nominated for an Oscar and every Oscar winner was nominated for a SAG. The Only anomaly being Benicio del Toro.
This year, SAG and Oscar nominees match 4 of 5. Whenever there is a 4 out of 5 nomination match, the SAG and Oscar winners match 63%. Based on these numbers, the SAG and Oscar winner should match.
I feel it safe to say that Colin Firth has it in the bag. James Franco and Jesse Eisenberg have won scattered precursors but Firth has been the consistent figure here.
SAG PREDICTION: Colin Firth
Oscar PREDICTION: Colin Firth
Actress – SAG & Oscar 63% Match Rate
The Actress categories are a little more sporadic. There is a category issue regarding Kate Winslet in 2008. Winslett won both the Supporting SAG and Lead Oscar for The Reader. She was also nominated for Supporting SAG for Revolutionary Road in that same year and received no Oscar nomination. Other than that, every SAG winner was nominated for an Oscar and every Oscar winner was nominated for a SAG. However, the Actress nominee consistency is 91%. That is 91% of the SAG Actress nominees have matched the Oscar Actress nominees. This is very high especially for a 63% win rate. They agree on who the top 5 are, but no necessarily the winner.
This year, SAG and Oscar nominees match 4 for 5. Whenever there is a 4 out of 5 nomination match, the SAG and Oscar winners match 57%. This could go either way but I would say, based on these numbers, the SAG and Oscar winner should match.
It’s seems that it’s down to Natalie Portman and Annette Benning. Portman has won the vast majority of the precursors, but you never what might happen win it comes to the SAG and Best Actress. Also, I wouldn’t count out Jennifer Lawrence.
SAG PREDICTION: Natalie Portman
Oscar PREDICTION: Natalie Portman
Supporting Actor – SAG & Oscar 56% Match Rate
The SAG and Oscar have matched the Best Supporting Actor winner for the last 3 years in a row. Aside from the del Toro irregularity, all of the non-matching winners were nominated for the SAG or Oscar.
This year, SAG and Oscar nominees match 5 for 5. Whenever there is a 5 out of 5 nomination match, the SAG and Oscar winners match 100%. (Martin Landau for Ed Wood and Christoph Waltz for Inglourious Basterds). Based on these numbers, the SAG and Oscar winner should match.
I don’t see anyone other than Christian Bale winning this one. He has completely dominated the precursor awards winning 24 of the 32 (78%). The stats show that SAG and Oscar couldn’t go different directions, but this year seems like a sure thing, although Geoffrey Rush was brilliant.
SAG PREDICTION: Christian Bale
Oscar PREDICTION: Christian Bale
Supporting Actress – SAG & Oscar 56% Match Rate
A couple of things stand out. The first is the Kate Winslet 2008 issue mentioned above. The second is that in 2001, Jennifer Connely won the Supporting Oscar and was nominated for a Lead SAG. Also, Marcia Gay Harden won the Supporting Oscar in 2000 for Pollock, but didn’t even receive a nomination for SAG. There is virtually no consistency with Supporting Actress. SAG and Oscar can’t even seem to get which category they want to nominate a supporting actress for. Other than that, ever non-matched SAG winner was nominated for an Oscar and Oscar winner was nominated for a SAG.
This year, SAG and Oscar nominees match 4 for 5. Whenever there is a 4 out of 5 nomination match, the SAG and Oscar winners match 67%.
Melissa Leo is the clear favorite here especially after she took home the Golden Globe. She has won most of the precursor awards, though Hailee Steinfeld is very close behind her in that race. I don’t see Steinfeld winning the Oscar so the SAG could award her. Also, you can’t count out Amy Adams. I can see the SAG and Oscar splitting on this decision.
SAG PREDICTION: Hailee Steinfeld
Oscar PREDICTION: Meliisa Leo
Ensemble – SAG & Oscar 47% Match Rate
There’s not much of a trend here. It’s a very low match rate and SAG and Oscar have never matched more than 2 years in a row. In 1996, The Birdcage won SAG Ensemble and wasn’t nominated for Best Picture Oscar. In 1995, Braveheart won Best Picture Oscar and wasn’t nominated for SAG ensemble. Since then, all of the non-matching SAG Ensemble and Oscar Best Picture winners were nominated for the other.
Concerning nomination counts; of the 15 years of the SAG Ensemble award:
– 6 winners had the most nominations, 3 won Best Picture
– 4 winners had the least nominations, 2 won Best Picture
– 5 winners were in the middle of the pack, 2 won Best Picture
No Trend. Dead-end trail.
This year, SAG and Oscar nominees match 5 for 5. Whenever there is a 5 out of 5 nomination match, the SAG and Oscar winners match 0%. It has happened twice before (2004-Sideways/Million Dollar Baby & 2001-Gosford Park & A Beautiful Mind) and neither SAG winner won the Oscar for Best Picture. Based on these numbers it could be said that the SAG ensemble will not match the Oscar Best Picture this year.
SAG PREDICTION: The Fighter
Oscar PREDICTION: The King’s Speech
SAG Nomination Counts
The King’s Speech 4
The Fighter 4
Black Swan 3
The Kids Are All Right 3
The Social Network 2
True Grit 2
127 Hours 1
Get Low 1
Rabbit Hole 1
Winter’s Bone 2
The Town 1