WGA, Scripter & the Oscars

Both the Writers Guild of America and the USC Libraries Scripter Awards are this weekend.  The WGA gives awards for both Original and Adapted screenplays while the Scripters give awards for Adapted only.  Below are the nominees:
Scripter                                WGA-Adapted                         Oscar-Adapted
127 Hours                              127 Hours                                 127 Hours
The Social Network                The Social Network                   The Social Network     
True Grit                                True Grit                                   True Grit
The Ghost Writer                    The Town                                 The Town
Winter’s Bone                         I Love You, Phillip Morris          Toy Story 3

127 Hours, The Social Network and True Grit are all the common films among all the 3 awards.
Scripter:
Scripter has been awarding films since 1998 (13 years).
– 61% nomination match rate with Oscar-Adapted.

– 31% win match rate with Oscar-Adapted.  Only 4 times in 13 years.
             – L.A. Confidential, A Beautiful Mind, No Country For Old Men, Slumdog Millionaire

– 77% of Oscar Adapted winners were nominated for Scripter.  
Scripter only matches Oscar-Adapted when WGA-Adapted matches Oscar-Adapted.

The WGA has been awarding films since 1948, 61 years, for both Adapted and Original Screenplays.

WGA-Adapted

– 72% nomination match rate with Oscar-Adapted.  

– 66% win match rate with Oscar-Adapted.  
               
– 92% of Oscar winners were nominated for WGA-Adapted

2 times has WGA-Adapted and Scripter matched winners, but Oscar gave a different winner
       Year          WGA-Adapted & Scripter                Oscar-Adapted
       2009          Up In The Air                                      Precious
       2002          The Hours                                           The Pianist

WGA-Adapted and Oscar winners have matched 5 out of the last 6 years.
WGA-Original      
Inception                                    
The Fighter                                  
The Kids Are All Right                     
Black Swan                                   
Please Give                                     

Oscar Original
Inception
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
Another Year
The King’s Speech*

*The King’s Speech is not eligible for the WGA-Original award.  I think if it were, it would win.  I do not believe that this will hurt The King’s Speech’s chances of winning Oscar-Adapted though. 


– 62% nomination match rate with Oscar-Original

– 57% win match rate with Oscar-Original

– 92% of Oscar winners were nominated for WGA-Original
Only once for both WGA-Adapted and WGA-Original has the Oscar winner not been nominated for WGA.  Oddly enough, this happened in the same year, 2002.

      Oscar-Adapted – The Pianist  –  not nominated for WGA-Adpated  –  nominated for Scripter
      Oscar-Original  – Talk To Her – not nominated for WGA-Original
WGA-Original and Oscar-Original have matched winners the last 7 years in a row.  
PREDICTIONS
For adapted, there seems to be a general agreement on the winner.  The Social Network has won all of the 29 precursor awards thus far this season.  That should be simple.
Original is a bit trickier.  As far as precursors go, there have been 4 different films to take Best Original Screenplay: The King’s Speech, The Kids Are All Right, Inception & Black Swan.  The King’s Speech is not eligible for WGA, so that’s out.  Inception has been snubbed a good bit this year so they may give it to Christopher Nolan who is much deserved.  I don’t see any films coming out of the shadows this late in the game even for a WGA award.  I think they will stick with the big guns, excluding The Kids Are All Right and Black Swan.  WGA & Oscar Original have agreed on a winner the past 7 years in a row.  That ends this year.
Scripter:                     The Social Network
WGA-Adapted:          The Social Network
Oscar-Adapted           The Social Network

WGA-Original:           Inception
Oscar-Original           The King’s Speech

WGA-Doc:                  Inside Job


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