The Case for Best Picture – 2012

In an effort to keep myself from dying of boredom this Oscar week I have made a break down of each Best Picture nominee’s chances of actually winning Best Picture.  Each film has a section of those statistics that give it even the slightest chance of taking home the Oscar as well as statistics showing its chances of losing.  All of these assumptions are based on past Best Picture winners compared to the other Big 4 category nominations (Director, Editing, Screenplay & Actor) and the 5 Major Guilds (PGA, DGA, ACE, WGA & SAG).
 1) The Artist
Why It Will Win
– Must win either Director or any 2 of Editing, Original Screenplay and Actor.
– The Artist won the DGA, which has an 80% match to Best Picture. 
– Gladiator (2000) won Best Picture with just an Actor win and Director, Editing, Original Screenplay nominations.
 – Rebecca (1940) won Best Picture with only nominations for Director, Editing, Screenplay & 3 Acting noms; no wins…but that was Adapted Screenplay…
 – Won 41% of Precursor Best Pictures
How It Can Lose
– by losing Director, Editing, Actor and Original Screenplay but that still won’t shut it out completely.  It will just crack the door open for a Hugo or The Descendants upset, which won’t happen. 
2) The Descendants
How It Could Win
– Needs to win any 3 of Director, Editing, Screenplay & Actor, which is possible.
– Crash (2005) won Best Picture with Editing & Screenplay wins & a Director loss.
– Rebecca (1940) won Best Picture with only nominations for Director, Editing, Screenplay & 3 Acting noms; no wins.
– Won 22% of Precursor Best Pictures
Why It Will Lose
 – by losing any 2 of Director, Editing, Screenplay and Actor
3) Hugo
How It Could Win
– It must win Director to have a shot, but that would just constitute a split.  Winning Editing & Screenplay, however, would put things in its favor.
– Braveheart (1995) won Best Picture with a Director win & Editing, Screenplay nominations with no Acting nominations.
– Won 8% of Precursor Best Pictures
Why It Will Lose
– by losing Director & Adapted Screenplay
– No film has won Best Picture without winning PGA, DGA ACE or WGA      
4) Moneyball
How It Could Win     
– Needs to win Adapted Screenplay.  This would give it roughly a 1% chance.
– Driving Miss Daisy (1989) won Best Picture without a Director nomination, but won Adapted Screenplay with 3 Acting nominations and Editing.
Why It Will Lose
– No film has ever won Best Picture without a Director nomination & a Screenplay win.
5) The Help
How It Could Win
– Statistically unprecedented.  This film has no chance of winning
Why It Will Lose
– No Film has ever won Best Picture without Director and Editing nomination
6) Midnight in Paris
How It Could Win
– Statistically unprecedented.  This film has no chance of winning
Why It Will Lose
– No film has ever won Best Picture without Editing & Acting nominations.
– No film has ever won Best Picture by losing PGA, DGA & Editing
           
7) War Horse
How It Could Win
– Statistically unprecedented.  This film has no chance of winning.
Why It Will Lose
– No film has ever won Best Picture without a Director, Editing, Screenplay & Acting nomination.
8) The Tree of Life
How It Could Win
– Statistically unprecedented.  This film has no chance of winning.
Why It Will Lose
– No film has ever won Best Picture without an Editing, Screenplay & Acting nomination.
– No film has ever won Best Picture without PGA, DGA, ACE, WGA & SAG nominations.
9) Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close
How It Could Win
– Statistically unprecedented.  This film has no chance of winning.
Why It Will Lose
– No film has ever won Best Picture without a Director, Editing & Screenplay nomination.
– No film has ever won Best Picture without PGA, DGA, ACE, WGA & SAG nominations.
– Did not win a single precursor award of any kind
RED FLAGS
The Artist is going to win.  All of this is just to keep my interest until the show is over.  The following points should raise red flags during the show if they do or do not occur.  The right combination of the red flags below could derail the train that is, The Artist, so keep your eyes open for any of these tell-tale signs of Oscar chaos.  Perhaps this will help many of you maintain an interest during the show.
1) The Artist losing Director, Editing, Acting and Original Screenplay.
2) The Descendants winning any 3 of Director, Editing, Adapted Screenplay & Actor
3) Hugo winning Director, Editing & Adapted Screenplay
4) Moneyball winning Adapted Screenplay.
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