2011 Awards Stats

CDG & the Oscars


WINNER: W.E.

Hugo

The Artist

The Help

Jane Eyre

CDG Fantasy Nominees

WINNER: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Red Riding Hood

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

Thor

X-Men: First Class

CDG Contemporary Nominees

WINNER: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Drive

Bridesmaids

The Descendants

Melancholia

83% of Oscar winners that match CDG winners come from the Period category.  That’s just as well because all of the Oscar nominees, including Anonymous, which wasn’t nominated for a CDG, come from the Period category.

Oscar Costume Nominees    

Hugo

The Artist

W.E.

Jane Eyre

Anonymous

Basically, it’s a 50% chance the winners will match.  This year, the Fantasy and Contemporary winners aren’t even nominated for an Oscar so we can forget about those.  Anytime this has happened in the past, 50% of the time the Period winner matched Best Picture anyways.  So for this category, I’ll use a bit of deductive reasoning to arrive at my prediction.

Anonymous

– Out. All Oscar winners were nominated for CDG.

Hugo

– Sandy Powell, the costume designer, has been nominated for an Oscar 9 times with 3 wins.  (Shakespeare in Love, The Aviator, The Young Victoria)

– 3 of the last 10 years the Oscar winner was set in the last 100 years, whereas the other 7 winners were from eras like: Georgian, Victorian, Elizabethan, etc.

W.E.

– Arianne Phillips, the costume designer, has 1 previous nomination for Walk the Line.

– 75% of time Oscar & CDG noms match 4/5, the winners match.  However, if The King’s Speech, which is precisely the same subject and time period as W.E and which also won Best Picture didn’t win Costume, then W.E won’t either.

– 3 of the last 10 years the Oscar winner was set in the last 100 years, whereas the other 7 winners were from eras like: Georgian, Victorian, Elizabethan, etc.

Jane Eyre

– Michael O’Connor, the costume designer, won the Oscar for The Duchess in 2008.

– set in or around the Victorian era, which the Academy loves to award.


The Artist

 – Assuming The Artist wins Best Picture, I have to mention that Costume Oscar & Best Picture haven’t matched since 2003 (Return of the King) and that was a sweep.  But then again, with the exception of The King’s Speech, which did not sweep, there hasn’t been a Best Picture winner with particularly excellent Costume Design.

Again, it all boils down to whether or not The Artist will sweep or just win Best Picture and Director.  Regardless of that fact, if The Artist deserves to win any Oscar it’s the Costume Award, though I could see the Academy going for Jane Eyre.

Prediction: The Artist




WGA, Scripter & the Oscars







 

WGA Original                                                Oscar Original

WINNER: Midnight in Paris                            Midnight in Paris

Bridesmaids                                                    Bridesmaids     

Win Win                                                         The Artist

Young Adult                                                   A Separation

50/50                                                             Margin Call

1) 56% of Oscar winners won WGA.

            – 80% match for last 10 years

            – Advantage: Midnight in Paris

– 2010 was the first time in 8 years that the 2 did not match.  Inception won the WGA and The King’s Speech, which was not even nominated for the WGA won the Oscar.

2) 85% of Oscar winners were nominated for WGA.

            – 2010 The King’s Speech & 2002 Talk to Her are the exceptions

            – Disadvantage: The Artist, A Separation, Margin Call

3) All 3 times Oscar & WGA nominations match 3/5 the winners match.

            – Advantage: Midnight in Paris 

The Artist has a ton of momentum, but there is the simple fact that there is no dialogue.  How can this possibly win the Oscar for screenplay, then?  Trust me, it can.  The question now is not WILL The Artist win Best Picture, but whether or not it will sweep the other awards.  I don’t remember there ever being this much of a lull in the month before the Oscars.  I take this to mean a non-sweep. 

Prediction: Midnight in Paris


WGA Adapted                                                 Scripter       

WINNER: The Descendants                       WINNER: The Descendants 

Moneyball                                                       Moneyball

Hugo                                                               Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

The Girl w/the Dragon Tattoo                          A Dangerous Method

The Help                                                         Jane Eyre


Oscar Adapted

The Descendants

Moneyball

Hugo

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

The Ides of March

1) 67% of Oscar winners won WGA.

            – Advantage: The Descendants

2) 92% of Oscar winners were nominated for WGA.

            – Disadvantage: The Ides of March & Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

            – 2002 The Pianist is the one exception

 3) 36% of Oscar winners won Scripter

            – by itself, winning the Scripter has no advantage

4) When WGA & Scripter winners match, 71% also win Oscar

            – Advantage: The Descendants

5) 69% of Oscar winners were nominated for both WGA & Scripter.

            – 4 times the Oscar winner was not nominated for both WGA & Scripter.

                        – 3 Oscar winners NOT nominated for WGA

                        – 1 Oscar winner NOT nominated for Scripter.

– Hugo and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy are not nominated for both.  Hugo has the advantage since it is nominated for WGA.

6) All Oscar winners were either nominated for WGA, Scripter or Both.

             – The Ides of March is out

The Descendants has the clear edge with Moneyball in second place. Hugo is in an “upset” 3rd place while Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy is in a distant 4th.  The Ides of March is totally out.  Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, honestly, is the best Adapted Screenplay of the year, but I feel like they go with The Descendants.

Prediction: The Descendant


ACE Awards & the Oscars

WINNER: The Descendants

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Hugo

Moneyball

War Horse

WINNER: The Artist

Bridesmaids

Midnight in Paris

My Week with Marilyn

Young Adult

In the 12 years of 2 Categories (Drama & Comedy/Musical)

1) 92% of the time ACE & Film Edit winners match (last 10 years straight)

                        – Advantage: The Descendants & The Artist

                        – Match 72% all time

            A. 83% of Film Edit winners come from Drama category

                        – Advantage: The Descendants

            B. 8% of Film Edit winners come from Comedy category (2002-Chicago)

                        – Disadvantage: The Artist

            C. 8% of Film Edit winners did not win either category (2000-Gladiator) 

                        – 14% all time

2) 40% of the time ACE, Film Edit and Best Picture all match.

            A. When ACE & Film Edit match, they also match Best Picture 56%

            B. When ACE & Oscar do NOT match…

                        – 21% of the time ACE winner matches Best Picture

                        – 29% of the time Film Edit winner matches Best Picture

                        – 50% of the time a different film wins Best Picture

3) No non-ACE-nominated film has won the Oscar.

            – Out is Bridesmaids, Midnight in Paris, My Week with Marilyn & Young Adult

All of the stats point to The Descendants running away with this one.  However, The Artist relies on its editing to tell the story since it has no screenplay.  This, I think, will be the game-changer.  Therefore, I think that The Artist will be the first ACE Comedy winner to win the Oscar since 2002 when Chicago won.  If the Artist wins Film Editing, then go ahead and mark it down for Best Picture…along Director, Actor, cinematography, score, costume, art direction etc.  If we’re being honest, then The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo is the clear winner.

Oscar Nominees

The Artist

The Descendants

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Hugo

Moneyball

Prediction: The Artist

MPSE & the Oscars


MPSE Nominees

WINNER: War Horse

Drive

Fast Five

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Super 8

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

1) 54% of the time the MPSE & Oscar winners match.

            – Advantage: Hugo

            – MPSE & Oscar winners match the last 5 years in a row

2) 3 times in the last 14 years, Oscar winner was not nominated for MPSE. (21%)

            – Advantage: Hugo

The sound editing category is so difficult to predict, because, though there may be some consistency between the nominations, the winners have been known to be absent from the MPSE lists.  Hugo is one of those and I see this film winning a lot of the Tech awards.

Oscar Nominees

Drive

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

War Horse

Hugo

Prediction: Hugo



CAS & the Oscars







CAS Nominees                                               Oscar Nominees

WINNER: Hugo                                               Hugo

Moneyball                                                        Moneyball                               

Pirates of the Caribbean                                    The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Super 8                                                            Transformers: Dark of the Moon          

Hanna                                                              War Horse

1) 50% of the time CAS and Oscar winners match.

            – 60% match last 5 years

            – Advantage: Hugo

2) The last time CAS & Oscar nominees matched 2/5, the winners matched.

            – Advantage: Hugo

3) All Oscar winners were nominated for CAS

            – Out are The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Transformers & War Horse

The sound categories are so hard to predict.  Stat #3 is quite telling.  All Oscar winners were nominated for CAS so it’s either down to Hugo or Moneyball.  Both are strong contenders and both could win.  Moneyball’s sound mixing is very good.  The audio clips mixed with the score and crowd noise is perfection.  However, when I think of Hugo’s sound, I think of ticking clocks and moving parts.  Also, I’ve always felt that Hugo might take away a few of the tech awards.

Prediction: Hugo

ASC & the Oscars















WINNER: Emmanuel Lubezki – The Tree of Life

The Artist, Guillaume Schiffman

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Jeff Cronenweth

Hugo, Robert Richardson

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, Hoyte Van Hoytema

Oscar Nominees

Tree of Life, Emmanuel Lubezki

The Artist, Guillaume Schiffman

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, Jeff Cronenweth

Hugo, Robert Richardson

War Horse, Janusz Kaminski

1) 40% of the time ASC and Oscar winners match.

            – Disadvantage: The Tree of Life

2) 8% of films won Oscar without being nominated for ASC (2).

            – Disadvantage: War Horse

3) 2 Cinematographers previously won ASC, but did not win Oscar.

            – Emmanuel Lubezki & Jeff Cronenweth

4) 2 Cinematographers previously won multiple Oscars.

            – Janusz Kaminski & Robert Richardson

The ASC is clearly one of the guilds that can stand on their own two feet.  They seem to not try to pick the same winners as the Oscars each year so it’s difficult to predict what will win the Oscar based on what won the ASC.  Robert Richardson and Janusz Kaminski have won multiple Oscars each.  Hugo is bound to pick up a good amount of Tech awards, but still I think it’s clear that The Tree of Life had the best cinematography of 2011.

Prediction: Emmanuel Lubezki – The Tree of Life

VES & the Oscars





WINNER: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Captain America

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

Oscar Nominees

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Real Steel

Hugo

1) 78% of the time VES and Oscar winners match

            – Advantage: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

2) The Oscar winner has always been nominated for VES 

            – Disadvantage: Hugo, Real Steel


This is a pretty straightforward category and given the Best Actor buzz for Andy Serkis later last year, I would say Rise of the Planet of the Apes is almost a lock.

Favored to Win: Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Art Directors Guild & the Oscars












WINNER: Hugo

The Artist

The Help

Anonymous

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

WINNER: Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Captain America

The Adventures of Tintin

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

Cowboys & Aliens

WINNER: The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

The Descendants

Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Drive

Bridesmaids

– For the last 5 years, the ADGA has nominated 15 films in 3 categories: Period, Fantasy and Contemporary.  Here is the breakout of Oscar nominations and winners from each ADGA category:

ADGA Category

Oscar Nom

Oscar Win

Period

48%

60%

Fantasy

32%

40%

Contemporary

0%

0%

6 years ago, the Period category came out of the Fantasy category and since then has been the most common category to be nominated for an Oscar.

The Contemporary category, in the 3-category system, has never had a film nominated for an Oscar.

1) In a 3-category system, 40% of the time the ADGA & Oscar winners match. 

            – All Time – 75%

            – Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows Part 2

                        – 3-Category System Disadvantage

                        – All Time Advantage

2) All Oscar winners were nominated for an ADGA.

            – Disadvantage: Midnight in Paris and War Horse

3) In a 3-category system, 60% of the Oscar winners were not ADGA winners.

            – All Time – 47%

            – The Artist

                        – 3-category system advantage

                        – All Time disadvantage

Oscar Nominees

The Artist

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Hugo

Midnight in Paris

War Horse

When look at this from an All Time perspective, the advantage goes to Harry Potter and Hugo.  When looking at it through the 3-category system perspective, the advantage goes to The Artist.  Midnight in Paris and War Horse are out.

The Artist is the favorite to win Best Picture and the Best Picture winner hasn’t won Art Direction since 2003 (The Return of the King).

Favored to Win Oscar: Hugo 

Annie’s & the Oscars

Annie Nominations

WINNER: Rango

Kung Fu Panda 2

Puss in Boots

Chico & Rita

Puss in Boots

Arrugas (Wrinkles)

Arthur Christmas

Cars 2

Rio

The Adventures of Tintin

1) 70% of the time the Annie winner also wins the Oscar.

            – Advantage: Rango

– Annie & Oscar did NOT match last year.

– Annie & Oscar have NOT matched twice in a row since 2005, when they capped off a 5 yeear matching streak

2) When Oscar nominates 5 films as opposed to 3, the winners match. 

            – However, this has only happened twice.

3) All 5 of the Oscar nominees were also nominated for Annie. 

            – In the past, when all Oscar nominees (3 or 5) were represented by the Annie’s,

40% of the time the winners matched.

Oscar Nominations

Rango

Kung Fu Panda 2

Puss in Boots

Chico & Rita

A Cat in Paris

Favor of winning Best Picture: Rango

SAG & the Oscars




Actor         

Oscar Match:      76%

SAG Winner        Jean DuJardin

Oscar Nominees

Jean DuJardin – The Artist

George Clooney – The Descendants

Brad Pitt – Moneyball

Gary Oldman – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Demian Bichir – A Better Life

The SAG and Oscar winner has matched 76% of the time and for the last 7 years in a row.

This year, SAG and Oscar nominees match 4 of 5.  Whenever there is a 4/5 nomination match, the SAG and Oscar winners match 67%.  Based on these numbers, the SAG and Oscar winner should match.

When they don’t match, it’s either a close race (Day-Lewis for Gangs of New York vs. Adrien Brody for The Pianist) or a category issue, like Benicio del Toro who won the SAG lead and Oscar supporting for Traffic.

My question is, will the voters revolt against SAG’s decision to award Jean DuJardin the Best Actor award by swinging in the way of George Clooney or will it only serve to increase DuJardin’s Oscar vote count?

Oscar PREDICTION: Jean DuJardin

Actress      

Oscar Match: 65%

SAG Winner: Viola Davis

Oscar Nominations

Viola Davis – The Help

Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady

Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn

Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs

Rooney Mara – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

The SAG and Oscar winner has matched 65% of the time and for the last 2 years in a row.

This year, SAG and Oscar nominees match 4 for 5.  Whenever there is a 4/5 nomination match, the SAG and Oscar winners match 63%.  This could go either way but I would say, based on these numbers, the SAG and Oscar winner should match.

It’s either Viola or Meryl and the evidence strongly suggestions a win for Viola.  Plus, people love The Help so Viola also has The Help Help.

Oscar PREDICTION: Viola Davis

Supporting Actor

Oscar Match: 59%

SAG Winner: Christopher Plummer

Oscar Nominations

Christopher Plummer – Beginners

Nick Nolte – Warrior

Jonah Hill – Moneyball

Max von Sydow – Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Kenneth Brannagh – My Week with Marilyn

The SAG and Oscar winner has matched category 59% of the time and for the last 4 years in a row.

This year, SAG and Oscar nominees match 4 for 5.  Whenever this is a 4/5 nomination match, the SAG and Oscar winners match 50%.  Any other year would be up in the air, but Plummer has it in the bag.

Oscar PREDICTION: Christopher Plummer

Supporting Actress

Oscar Match: 59%

SAG Winner: Octavia Spencer

Oscar Nominations

Octavia Spencer – The Help

Berenice Bejo – The Artist

Jessica Chastain – The Help

Melissa McCarthy – Bridesmaids

Janet McTeer – Albert Nobbs

The SAG and Oscar winner has matched 59% of the time and for the last 2 years in a row.

This year, SAG and Oscar nominees match 5 for 5.  Whenever there is a 5 out of 5 nomination match, the SAG and Oscar winners match 67%.  There’s no one else, but Octavia Spencer.  The Help Help applies here, as well.

Oscar PREDICTION: Octavia Spencer

Ensemble

Oscar Match: 50%

SAG Winner: The Help

Best Picture/SAG Ensemble Nominations

The Artist

The Descendants

The Help

Midnight in Paris

The SAG and Oscar has matched 50% of the time.  SAG and Oscar have never matched more than 2 years in a row, but they have matched 2 years in a row 3 times.  A match this year would be its 4th 2-year streak.

This year, 4 of the Best Picture nominees make up the 5 SAG Ensemble nominees.  Whenever there is a 4/5 nomination match, the SAG and Oscar winners match 50%.  Due to other Oscar/Guild rules, The Help has no shot at winning.


Oscar PREDICTION: The Artist

DGA & the Oscar Best Director

WINNER: Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist

Midnight in Paris – Woody Allen

Hugo – Martin Scorsese

The Descendants – Alexander Payne

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – David Fincher

1) DGA & Best Director winners match 90%.

            – Advantage: Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist

            – When DGA and Best Director Haven’t Matched:

                                    DGA                            Best Director

                        2002    Chicago                        The Pianist

                        2000    Crouching Tiger            Traffic

                        1995    Apollo 13                     Braveheart

                        1985    The Color Purple          Out of Africa

                        1972    The Godfather              Cabaret

                        1968    The Lion in Winter        Oliver!

2) When DGA & Best Director nominees match 4/5, the winners match 89%.

            – Advantage: Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist

            – 2002, 2000 & 1968 were all 4/5 nominee match with a different winner

Best Director Nominees

The Artist – Michel Hazanavicius

Midnight in Paris – Woody Allen

Hugo – Martin Scorsese

The Descendants – Alexander Payne

The Tree of Life – Terrence Malick     No DGA Nom

3) NEVER has a NON-DGA nominated film won Oscar’s Best Director

            – Terrence Malick for The Tree of Life is out.

Best Director Favorite:         Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist

PGA & the Oscar

PGA Winner:      

The Artist

PGA Nominees

The Artist

The Descendants

The Help

Hugo

Moneyball

War Horse

Midnight in Paris

Bridesmaids

The Ides of March

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

1) The PGA winner and Best Picture winner has matched 16 of out of 22 years, 73%.

            – Advantage: The Artist

2) This year, PGA and Best Picture nominations match 7 out of 9 (78%)

– When PGA and Best Picture nominees have matched 80% in the past, 5 of those times they chose the same winner.  Little Miss Sunshine, Brokeback Mountain and The Aviator were the 3 films who won PGA, but didn’t win Best Picture.

3) For the last 4 years in a row, the PGA winner has won Best Picture.

– the 3 years before that, the PGA and Best Picture did not match.  Below is where the PGA and Best Picture winners have deviated:

                                                PGA                                        Oscars

2006    Little Miss Sunshine                  The Departed

2005    Brokeback Mountain                Crash

2004    The Aviator                              Million Dollar Baby

2001    Moulin Rouge!              A Beautiful Mind

1995    Apollo 13                                 *Braveheart

1992    The Crying Game                     Unforgiven

*Note that in 1995 Braveheart won Best Picture, but was not nominated for PGA.  This is the only time that has ever happened.

4) 27% of the PGA winners did NOT win Best Picture.

– There’s a 27% chance that a non-PGA winner could win Best Picture.  Below are the PGA losers who are also nominated for Best Picture:


PGA Losers/Best Picture Nominees

The Descendants

Hugo

The Help

Moneyball

War Horse

Midnight in Paris

The Tree of Life                                               Not Nominated for PGA                     

Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close                  Not Nominated for PGA

– The Tree of Life and Extremely Loud are out.  As long as there are more than 5 nominees I don’t see a “Braveheart” repeat happening

– The Descendants and Hugo have the best chance at competing with The Artist, but last time I checked Harvey Weinstein didn’t produce those films.

 Favor of winning Best Picture:          The Artist


***********************************************************

Golden Reel nominees & the Oscars Sound Edit

Drive

Fast Five

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Super 8

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

War Horse

1) 70% of the time MPSE and Oscar Sound Edit match nominees

            – 2 or 3 films from MPSE will be nominated for an Oscar.

                        1) Super 8

                        2) The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

                        3) Drive

                        4) War Horse

                        5) Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol

2) 7 of the last 10 years Pixar has been Oscar-nominated, but not MPSE-nominated

            – Cars 2 doesn’t sound promising

            – Will that leave a spot for another animated?

                        1) The Adventures of Tintin

                        2) Rango

3) 30% of the time MPSE and Oscar Sound Edit do NOT match.

– Assuming 1 of those spots is taken by an animated film that leaves us with 1 or 2 films not Oscar-nominated.

                        1) Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

                        2) Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

4) 44% of Oscar Sound Edit noms are also nominated for Best Picture (since ’06)

            – This gives greater chance for War Horse to get a nomination

5) 42% of Oscar Sound Edit noms are also nominated for both CAS and MPSE.

            – Super 8 is the only common film between CAS & MPSE.

MPSE Nominee Predictions

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Super 8

Drive

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

The Adventures of Tintin

…War Horse making a run.




Cinema Audio Society nominees & the Oscars Sound Mix

Hanna

Hugo

Moneyball

Pirates of the Caribbean

Super 8

1) 71% of Oscar Sound Mixing nominees are nominated for CAS.

            – Oscar will nominated 3 or 4 from the CAS nominees.

            – Assuming that they will go with 3:

                        1) Pirates of the Caribbean

2) Hugo

                        3) Super 8                               

                        4) Moneyball

– I’m torn between Super 8 and Moneyball.  That train wreck scene alone is worthy of a nomination, but Moneyball’s Sound Mixer won the Oscar last year for Inception and was also nominated for The Dark Knight.  They could both make it in, but probably just 1.  Super 8 is the more obvious choice so I’ll go with that.

2) 29% of Oscar Sound Mixing nominees were NOT nominated for CAS.

– I think it likely that Oscar will pick 2 new films to nominate.  The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy both have great sound, but we shouldn’t forget about the big Special Effects-heavy blockbusters, like Transformers: Dark of the Moon, Captain America, Thor or X-Men: First Class.

– I can see the non-flashy Hannah getting left out and Moneyball is the less obvious choice between that and Super 8, but

3) 44% of Oscar Sound Mixing noms are also nominated for Best Picture (since ‘06)

– Possibly 2 of the Oscar nominees will also be Best Picture nominees.

– Hugo and Moneyball are already in the running for both

– Dragon Tattoo, Tinker Tailor Soldeier Spy could be the adds

            – In 2009, 4 of the 5 Sound Mixing nominations were BP noms as well

CAS Nominee Predictions

Hugo

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

Super 8

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

…Moneyball rounding third…

Costume Designers Guild nominees & the Oscars

CDG Period Nominees

Hugo

The Artist

W.E.

The Help

Jane Eyre

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Red Riding Hood

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

Thor

X-Men: First Class

CDG Contemporary Nominees

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Drive

Bridesmaids

The Descendants

Melancholia

Here is a breakdown of how the nominees are distributed from CDG to Oscar in the last 7 years:

CDG Category                       Oscar %

            Period                                      60%

Fantasy                                    11%

            Contemporary                            6%

            NOT NOMINATED               23%

1) 77% of the nominees match between CDG and Oscar Costume Design.

– 3 to 4 films from the 15 films above will be nominated for Oscar.  In fact, one might pick 3 straight from the Period Category.

                        – Hugo

                        – The Artist

                        – Jane Eyre

                        – The Help or Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows

2) Only 2 Contemporary CDG films have been nominated for an Oscar: The Queen and The Devil Wears Prada.  Both films were from 2006.

– There are some stand-out films in the Contemporary category this year.  If any get nominated it will be either Drive or The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.

3) 23% of Oscar nominees are not nominated for CDG

– Since 2004, only 1 time were all 5 Oscar nominees also nominated for CDG.  1 spot should be left open for a film not nominated for CDG.  Of those films not CDG-nominated, 75% would be considered Period and 25% Contemporary.  Here are some possibilities:

            Film                                                                 Category

            Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy                                  Period

            The Tree of Life                                                Period

            Anonymous                                                      Period

            Captain America                                               Period

            My Week with Marilyn                                     Period

            A Dangerous Method                                       Period

            Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close          Contemporary

Best Costume Design Nominee Predictions

The Artist

Hugo

Jane Eyre

The Help

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

…Harry Potter gets left out.

American Cinema Editors nominees & the Oscars

The Artist

Bridesmaids

Midnight in Paris

My Week with Marilyn

Young Adult

ACE Drama Nominees

The Descendants

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Hugo

Moneyball

War Horse

1) 76% of Oscar nominees were nominated for ACE. 

A – 71% come from Drama

At least 3 Drama films will make the transition to Oscar.  The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo has the best editing of the year.  The Descendants is in a distant second regarding the Best Picture race and an Editing nom is required when it comes to Best Picture.  It’s Hugo or Moneyball after that.  Hugo has received precursor acclaim when it comes to Film Editing, but I prefer Moneyball.

           

            B – 5% come from Comedy/Musical

Comedy/Musical has never matched more than 1 Oscar nom per year and has not been Oscar-nominated in the last 5 years.  That will change this year when The Artist makes the cross-over, but that will be the only film to do so.  The Artist is a sure thing

3) 24% of Oscar nominees are not nominated for ACE.

– At least 1, maybe 2 films, will come out of nowhere for an Oscar nomination.  I think War Horse gets left out and Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy jumps in.  If I had to pick another newbie to join the ranks, then I remove Hugo or Moneyball and bring in Drive.

Best Film Edit Nominee Prediction

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

The Descendants

Hugo (or Moneyball)

The Artist

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

American Society of Cinematographers nominees & the Oscars

The Artist                                             – Guillaume Schiffman

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo            – Jeff Cronenweth

Hugo                                                    – Robert Richardson

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy                      – Hoyte Van Hoytema

Tree of Life                                          – Emmanuel Lubezki

1) 76% ASC nominations match the Oscar Cinematography nominations.

2) 60% ASC and Oscar match 4 for 5.

            – We can safely take 3 and probably take 4 films to crossover:

                        1) Tree of Life – has completely dominated the precursors

                        2) The Artist – has completely dominated every other category

                        3) Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy – the cinematography is sick

                        4) Hugo – nothing strong enough to replace it

3) Only thrice has ASC and Oscar matched 5 for 5, but twice in the last 4 years.

– It’s possible they could go 5 for 5 this year, but I don’t think the Academy will continue the theme of this year’s snubbing of War Horse.  However, all 5 ASC nominations are more than deserving and, depending on who you ask, have better cinematography than War Horse.  Drive is also a possibility to sneak in if only 3 films crossover.

– The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, while beautifully shot, isn’t very “showy”.  But then again, some may think War Horse to be too “showy”.

Best Cinematography Predictions

The Artist

Hugo

Tree of Life

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

War Horse

…if the War Horse snub continues, then The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo gets in.

Directors Guild of America nominees & the Oscars Best Picture

The DGA’s nominations match the Oscar nominations 74%.

David Fincher – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris

Martin Scorsese – Hugo

Alexander Payne – The Descendants

Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist

Below is a breakdown of the DGA & Oscar nomination match rate for the last 41 years:

            Nominations               Years              %

– 5 for 5                       5                      12%

– 4 for 5                       19                    46%

– 3 for 5                       17                    41%    (21% in last 14 years)

1) The DGA and Oscar have never matched less than 3 of the 5 nominations.

– If 3 films are locks to make the crossover, then I will take The Artist, The

Descendants and Midnight in Paris.

– In the last 14 years, the 3 for 5 match has only occurred 3 times (21%) so I am really going to assume that there will be 4 crossovers and keep Hugo.

2) There will more than likely be a 1 film to be “left out” of the Best Director Oscar. 

– The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo was the surprise nominee here so if any get left out, then it’s this one.  The Academy could nominate Fincher apologetically regarding his supposed snub from not winning last year.

– Who will replace?  Any other year I would put my money on Stephen Daldry for Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close who has twice been the director to earn an Oscar nom without a DGA, but the film’s reviews aren’t nearly good enough.  Terrence Malick has the best shot of getting in for The Tree of Life.

3) 55% of the “left out” DGA nominations are nominated for Best Picture.

The replacement options are too poor for me to replace any of the filmmakers here.

Best Director Predictions

David Fincher – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris

Martin Scorsese – Hugo

Alexander Payne – The Descendants

Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist



Golden Globes and the Oscars

GOLDEN GLOBES EFFECT ON THE OSCARS – 0% 

Visual Effects Society nominations and the Oscars

Captain America

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

72% of all Oscar nominated films for Visual Effects were also nominated for the VES awards.  1 or 2 films not nominated here are likely to show up as an Oscar nomination.  Below is Oscar’s shortlist of the 10 films that will be cut down to 5.  The top 5 below are those that coincide with all 5 VES nominations.

Visual Effects Oscar Shortlist

Captain America: The First Avenger

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Transformers: Dark of the Moon

Hugo

Mission: Impossible – Ghost Protocol

Real Steel

The Tree of Life

X-Men: First Class

Rise of the Planet of the Apes is the surest thing here.  Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1 was nominated so I am going to assume that they will nominate the finale of the series as well.  All of the Pirates films have received Visual Effects nominations so I will keep it.  Only the first Transformer movie received a nomination, so I think Captain America might stick it out.

Pulling at least 1 from the shortlist that didn’t get a VES nomination, I have to go with Hugo.  If neither Transformers nor Captain America make the crossover, then there’s X-Men: First Class, which got decent reviews.

Visual Effects Oscar Prediction

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Rise of the Planet of the Apes

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

Hugo

Captain America: The First Avenger

…look out for Transformers: Dark of the Moon.



USC Scripter Awards nominations and the Oscars

The Scripter & Oscar nominations have NEVER matched 5 for 5.

The Scripter & WGA nominations have matched 5 for 5 once.

Scripter Nominations             WGA Adapted Nominations

The Descendants                                 The Descendants

Moneyball                                           Moneyball

A Dangerous Method                           The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Jane Eyre                                           The Help         

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy                     Hugo

66% of Scripter nominees are also nominated for an Oscar Adapted Screenplay so it might be safe to assume that 3 of the 5 Scripter nominations above will also be nominated for an Oscar.

1) When WGA & Scripter match, 74% of those films are nominated for an Oscar

– 2 films match (40%), so it’s safe to assume that both The Descendants and Moneyball will be nominated.

 2) When WGA & Scripter do not match, 56% of those films are nominated for an Oscar.  66% come from WGA & 34% come from Scripter

– 2 inconsistent films from WGA will get me The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and Hugo, though part of me wants to take all 3.

– 1 film from Scripter will get me Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

3) 12% of the all Oscar nominations are films that were not nominated for either. 

– There are many adapted films not nominated for either WGA or Scripter, like War Horse, Drive, We Need to Talk About Kevin, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close among many others.  The last 2 years, Oscar has nominated 1 film each year that was neither nominated previously so I am going to predict that it won’t happen this year.

Adapted Oscar Prediction

The Descendants

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Hugo

Moneyball

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

…look out for The Help.



Writers Guild of America nominations and the Oscars

83% of WGA nominees go on to be nominated for Oscar Best Picture.

– 5 BP nominees, 4 WGA’s get nominated

– 6 BP nominees, 5 WGA’s get nominated

– 7 or 8 BP nominees, 6-7 WGA’s get nominated

– 9 BP nominees, 8 WGA’s get nominated

– 10 BP nominees, 8 WGA’s get nominated

WGA Original Screenplay Nominations

50/50

Bridesmaids

Midnight in Paris

Win Win

Young Adult

62% (3 of 5) of Original WGA’s get nominated for Oscar.

Midnight in Paris is a given.  Bridesmaids is making a Best Picture push, so this is where they might show up in support as well as for a consolation prize.  I think one of Young Adult, 50/50 or Win Win will stay, but not all three.  The Artist, with its fierce Best Picture tirade, will have to get a nomination here.  The 5th spot is open for debate, but I think A Separation takes it.

Original Oscar Prediction

Bridesmaids

Midnight in Paris

Young Adult

The Artist

A Separation

WGA Adapted Screenplay Nominations

The Descendants

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

The Help

Hugo

Moneyball

72% (3-4 of 5) of Adapted WGA’s get nominated for Oscar.

I really want to say that all 5 of these films get nominated for an Oscar, but the statistics show that they’ve never matched 5 for 5.  The Descendants has won about 45% of all the precursor awards, with Moneyball very close behind.  Hugo has a pretty healthy Best Picture push. Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy is the film most likely to break in, with Drive, We Need to Talk About Kevin, War Horse and Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close being possibilities as well.  The problem is picking which one will get cut.  There will ultimately have to be a reason for The Help not to win Best Picture and I think that a lack of a screenplay nod will be it.

Adapted Oscar Prediction

The Descendants

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Hugo

Moneyball

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy



Art Directors Guild of America nominees & the Oscars

Period

The Artist

Hugo

The Help

Anonymous

Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Fantasy

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

Captain America

The Adventures of Tintin

Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

Cowboys & Aliens

Contemporary

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

The Descendants

Extremely Loud & Incredibly Close

Drive

Bridesmaids

3-Category System

In a 3-Category System, the ADG and the Oscar nominees match 80% of the time.

This is a low match rate considering the fact that the ADG nominates 15 films to the Oscar’s 5.  The films that do match tend to come from the Period and Fantasy categories of the ADG.  Of the Oscar nominated films:

            – 48% were in the Period ADG Category

            – 32% were in the Fantasy ADG Category

            – 0% was in the Contemporary ADG Category

            – 20% were not nominated for ADG

Based on the stats above we could assume the following category distribution:

            – 2-3 Period films to Oscar

            – 1-2 Fantasy films to Oscar

            – 0 Contemporary films to Oscar


Art Direction Oscar Predictions

The Artist

Hugo

The Help

Harry Potter & the DH 2

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

The Artist and Hugo are shoo-ins, especially considering their push for Best Picture.  The Help is bound for a BP nomination, but if it gets left out here, then look for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy.  Deathly Hallows Part 1 was nominated and I feel like they will do the same for the finale of the series.  If the Academy goes contemporary, then it will for sure be The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.  If not, watch for Captain America.

Also, there is a good possibility that the Academy will nominate films that are not among the ADGA 15.  If that’s the case, then watch out for War Horse or The Tree of Life

Producers Guild of America nominees & the Oscars Best Picture

The Artist

The Descendants

The Help

Hugo

Moneyball

War Horse

Midnight in Paris

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Bridesmaids

The Ides of March

75% of the PGA nominees are also nominated for the Oscar for Best Picture.  In the last 2 years (10 nominees each), 85% of the PGA nominees were nominated for Best Picture.

This year, however, the voting system for Best Picture is quite different.  There is likely going to be between 6 and 8 Best Picture nominations.  Therefore, it’s quite possible (even probable) that these 10 PGA nominations contain all of the Best Picture nominees.  Assuming there are 7 Best Picture nominees, then I would cut The Ides of March, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo and Bridesmaids.  If there are only 6 Best Picture nominees, then I also take out Midnight in Paris.

In case the Academy nominates a movie that is not among the PGA 10, then I would consider adding The Tree of Life or the poorly reviewed Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.

Animation PGA Nominees

The Adventures of Tintin

Cars 2

Kung Fu Panda 2

Puss in Boots

Rango

I recently posted a breakdown of how the Oscar Animation nominees are affected by the Annie awards.  Here is a PGA Animation breakdown

83% of the Oscar Animation nominees match with the PGA nominees for Animation.  According to the PGA statistics, one of these films won’t make it to the Oscars.  The 5 PGA nominees are the very same 5 that are nominated for Annie.  If I had to cut 1 film, then it would be Puss in Boots and I would replace it with A Cat in Paris, Wrinkles or Chico & Rita.  You know how the Oscars tend to pick at least one film out of the blue for Animation.



Screen Actors Guild award nominees and the Oscars

Actor Nominees

George Clooney – The Descendants

Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar

Jean DuJardin – The Artist

Brad Pitt – Moneyball

Dermian Bichir – A Better Life

82% of the SAG nominees for Best Actor match the Oscar nominees.  That’s 4.1 nominees each year that match between SAG and Oscar.

On average, one slot is replaced each year and I’m willing to bet almost anything that Dermian Bichir will not be nominated for an Oscar.  Instead, look for Michael Fassbender for Shame, Gary Oldman for Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy or Michael Shannon for Take Shelter to replace him.  If you’re looking for an outside shot, think of Ryan Gosling for Drive, though that’s far-fetched.  If they replace more than one slot, then look out for DiCaprio to get the snub.

George Clooney – The Descendants

Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar

Jean DuJardin – The Artist

Brad Pitt – Moneyball

Michael Shannon – Take Shelter

Actress Nominees

Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs

Viola Davis – The Help

Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady

Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin

Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn

91% of the SAG nominees for Best Actress match the Oscar nominees.  That’s 4.5 nominees each year that match between SAG and Oscar.  That’s huge!  As a matter of fact, the SAG Best Actress category has never matched less than 4 Oscar nominations.

The only thing that bugs me is the fact that Glenn Close hasn’t won a single precursor yet this year so if I had to pick one slot to get bumped I would say her and I would have to replace her with Elizabeth Olsen for Martha Marcy May Marlene.

Actress Oscar Prediction

Glenn Close – Albert Nobbs

Viola Davis – The Help

Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady

Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin

Michelle Williams – My Week with Marilyn

Supporting Actor Nominees

Kenneth Branagh – My Week with Marilyn

Armie Hammer – J. Edgar

Jonah Hill – Moneyball

Nick Nolte – Warrior

Christopher Plummer – Beginners

78% of the SAG nominees for Best Supporting Actor match the Oscar nominees.  That’s 3.9 nominees each year that match between SAG and Oscar.  It’s best to assume at least one slot will be replaced.

The 2 slots that don’t look right to me are Armie Hammer and Jonah Hill.  At least one of these will get pushed and replaced by Albert Brooks for Drive, who has won 61% of the Best Supporting Actor precursors.

Supporting Actor Oscar Prediction

Kenneth Branagh – My Week with Marilyn

Jonah Hill – Moneyball

Nick Nolte – Warrior

Christopher Plummer – Beginners

Albert Brooks – Drive

Supporting Actress Nominees

Berenice Bejo – The Artist

Jessica Chastain – The Help

Melissa McCarthy – Bridesmaids

Janet McTeer – Albert Nobbs

Octavia Spencer – The Help

72% of the SAG nominees for Best Supporting Actress match the Oscar nominees.  That’s 3.6 nominees each year that match between SAG and Oscar.

A couple of things stand out: the first being Janet McTeer for Albert Nobbs.  I think she gets replaced by Shailene Woodley for The Descendants.  The second stand-out of the group is Jessica Chastain.  She could potentially be nominated for The Help, The Tree of Life or Take Shelter.  The Oscars have been known to nominate the same actor, but for a different film.  However, all of the buzz behind The Help could influence the voters to nominate her for that film instead of the others as the acting nominees will generate momentum for the Best Picture push.

Supporting Actress Oscar Prediction

Berenice Bejo – The Artist

Jessica Chastain – The Help

Melissa McCarthy – Bridesmaids

Octavia Spencer – The Help

Shailene Woodley – The Descendants

Ensemble Nominees

The Artist

Bridesmaids

The Descendants

The Help

Midnight In Paris

68% of the SAG nominees for Best Ensemble match the Best Picture Oscar nominees.  That’s 3.4 nominees each year that match between SAG and Oscar, although if you take only the last 2 years into consideration (years with 10 BP nominees), then only 1 of 20 nominees got left off the Best Picture nominations (Nine in 2009), which is 95%.

However, we do not know how many Best Picture nominees there are until they announce them, but I am going to assume that all of these get nominated for Best Picture and I am also assuming that there are at least 7 Best Picture nominees (depending on how the new voting system works out).  Bridesmaids is the weak link with Midnight in Paris falling off next, though I don’t think either fit that “Nine” mold, which was a mediocre and empty film.  There are a few that are not on the list that should be added:  Hugo, Moneyball, War Horse.  The problem is, we don’t know the exact number of Best Picture nominees yet.



Annie Awards compared to the Oscars

Each year the Annie awards nominate a rather inconsistent number of films.  The Oscars nominate either 3 if there are 8 animated films released or 5 if there are 16 films released in the current year.  Below is a rundown of the Annie to Oscar match rates by number of nominations.

3 Oscar Nominations                92% Match Rate Annie to Oscar

5 Oscar Nominations                90% Match Rate Annie to Oscar

This year, the Annie award nominated 10 films.  The Oscars will nominate 5.  There have been only 2 years were there were 5 films nominated for the Best Animated Film Oscar.

Year                Annie Noms                                                    Oscar Noms

2009                Winner: Up                                                     Winner: Up

Coraline                                                           Coraline

Fantastic Mr. Fox                                             Fantastic Mr. Fox

The Princess and the Frog                                 The Princess and the Frog

The Secret of Kells                                           The Secret of Kells

Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs

All 5 of the Oscar nominated films were nominated for Annie.

2002                Winner: Spirited Away                                  Winner: Spirited Away         

Ice Age                                                            Ice Age

Lilo and Stitch                                                  Lilo and Stitch

Spirit: Stallion of the Cimarron               Spirit: Stallion of Cimarron

*Monsters, Inc.                                                Treasure Planet

4 of the 5 Oscar nominated films were nominated for Annie.  The Annie’s were a year behind with Monsters, Inc, which was nominated for an Oscar in 2001.  This could be the main reason why Treasure Planet was not nominated for an Annie, but was nominated for an Oscar.

For some reason, the Annie’s deemed it necessary to nominate 10 films this year, so it’s almost certain that the 5 Oscar nominees will come from this bunch.  Rango and The Adventures of Tintin have been dominating the precursors.  Cars 2 and Kung Fu Panda 2, the Pixar and Dreamworks sequels have a great chance.  Puss In Boots was nominated for a PGA along with aforementioned films.

2011                Annie Noms                                                    Oscar Nom Predictions

                        A Cat In Paris                                                  Rango

Wrinkles                                                           The Adventures of Tintin

Arthur Christmas                                              Cars 2

Cars 2                                                              Kung Fu Panda 2

Chico & Rita                                                    Puss In Boots

Kung Fu Panda 2

Puss In Boots

Rango

Rio

Tintin

*Monster’s Inc. was nominated for the Oscar in 2001, but it did not win because it’s not that good.



Boston, New York and Los Angeles Film Critics compared to the Oscars

The Boston Film Critics, New York Film Critics and Los Angeles Film Critics all announce their awards around the same time each year.  There have been all sorts of combinations when it comes to these 3 film society’s best pictures of each year.  Some years, all three film circles pick the same film, like the last 2 years.  In 2009, all 3 picked The Hurt Locker, which went on to win the Oscar for Best Picture.  However, in 2010 seemingly every critics’ society and their mothers picked The Social Network, which did not win Best Picture.  As a matter of fact, 7 times the Boston, New York and Los Angeles Film Critics have all picked the same film and only 2 of those eventually went on to win Best Picture (Schindler’s List, The Hurt Locker).  That’s just 29%.

But this year we have a different combination.  Boston and New York match, but Los Angeles does not.

Boston – The Artist

NY – The Artist

LA – The Descendants

The LAFC has a love affair with Alexander Payne or at least they seem to since they picked his last 3 movies for their Best Picture.  Boston and New York matched by picking The Artist for their Best Picture of 2011. Only 3 years has Boston and New York matched with Los Angeles been the odd one out.  2 out of these 3 years the Boston/NY Best Picture went on to win the Oscar. 67%

Year    Boston/NY Best Film Oscar Best Picture

2007    No Country for Old Men          No Country for Old Men

2001    Mulholland Drive                      A Beautiful Mind

1991    The Silence of the Lambs          The Silence of the Lambs

We all know Mulholland Drive didn’t have a shot at winning Best Picture.  The other two films were also “Un-Best-Picture-Like” in that they were rather violent and scary.  According to this statistic, The Artist has a 67% chance of winning Best Picture and that’s not considering the Weinstein effect, which only increases its chances.

Take Away: The Artist to win Best Picture

National Board of Review 2011 Awards

The National Board of Review bares little resemblance to the Oscars in most categories, but we can at least get an idea of what won’t be nominated.  Below are the winners of the NBR categories for 2011 along with the percentage of which that category matches the Oscars.  I have included the percentage of the last 10 and 5 years as well in order to find some relevance to more recent years.

Film:

Winner:            Hugo

Oscar Match:   24%

– Last 10 yrs:    20%

– Last 5 yrs:      40%

Director

Winner:            Martin Scorsese, Hugo

Oscar Match:   23%

– Last 10 yrs:    20%

– Last 5 yrs       20%

Actor

Winner:            George Clooney, The Descendants

Oscar Match:   36%

– Last 10 yrs:    40%

– Last 5 yrs:      20%

Actress

Winner:            Tilda Swinton, We Need to Talk About Kevin

Oscar Match:   32%

– Last 10 yrs:    20%

– Last 5 yrs:      20%

Supporting Actor

Winner:            Christopher Plummer, Beginners

Oscar Match:   23%

– Last 10 yrs:    30%

– Last 5 yrs:      20%

Supporting Actress

Winner:            Shailene Woodley, The Descendants

Oscar Match:   18%

– Last 10 yrs:    10%

– Last 5 yrs:      20%

Original Screenplay

Winner:            Will Reiser, 50/50

Oscar Match:   29%

Adapted Screenplay

Winner:            Payne, Faxon, Rash – The Descendants

Oscar Match:   57%

The NBR has matched the Oscar screenplay 4 out of the last 7 years, 57%.  This year, the NBR went with The Descendants, which has shared a lot of the Adapted Screenplay precursor awards with Moneyball.  I fully expect it to be down to these two in the end, though you never know for sure with screenplay.  Just look back at 2009.

Animated

Winner:            Rango

Oscar Match:   80%

– Last 10 yrs:    80%

– Last 5 yrs:      80%

The NBR, along with many other precursors, chose Rango.  The Animated category for NBR has matched Oscar for the last 4 years, but I see the tide turning in favor of Tin Tin.

Foreign Language

Winner:            A Separation

Oscar Match:   19%

Documentary

Winner:            Paradise Lost 3:            Purgatory

Oscar Match:   35%

– Last 10 yrs:    70%

– Last 5 yrs:      70%

The overall match rate to Oscar is so low mainly because from 1988 to 2001, the two never matched.  However, from 2002 to 2010 the NBR matches Oscar 7 out of 9 years, 78%.  In 2010, the NBR chose Waiting for “Superman”, which was completely snubbed by the Oscars.  This year, the NBR chose Paradise Lost 3: Purgatory, which has made the Oscar Documentary shortlist of 15.  Of all the documentaries out in 2011, this one hasn’t received as much acclaim as some of the others, but its subject matter is completely relevant and, more than likely, close to the hearts of some of the Academy members themselves.

NBR Top 10 of 2011

Hugo

The Artist

The Descendants

Drive

The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

The Ides of March

J. Edgar

Tree of Life

War Horse

In the 82 year history of the NBR Top 10 lists, 50.7% of the films on their Top 10’s go on to either be nominated for or win Best Picture.

There has never been a year where the NBR Top 10 did not contain at least 1 eventual Best Picture nominee.

The NBR Top 10 contains an average of 3 Best Picture nominees per year.

68 of the 82 NBR Top 10 lists include the eventual Best Picture winner.  (83%)

There have been 11 years where the NBR Top 10 contained all 5 Best Picture nominees

In the last 22 years, the NBR Top 10 contained the eventual Best Picture winner.  The one year it did not was 2003.  That year, the NBR felt that The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King was not one of the ten best of that year.

You can bet that the eventual Best Picture winner is in the list above.



New York Film Critics Circle Awards

The NYFCC has been giving out annual film awards since 1935.  This year they bumped up their awards announcement date to be the first awards circle of the year to give out their awards.  They then bumped their announcements back a day in order to screen The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo.  Funnily enough, they did not give this particular film any award.  Below are the 2011 New York Film Critics Circle awards and how they typically match up with the Oscar.

2011 NYFCC Awards

Picture:                                     The Artist

Director:                                   Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist

Screenplay:                               Steven Zaillian/Aaron Sorkin – Moneyball

Actor:                                       Brad Pitt – Moneyball, Tree of Life

Actress:                                    Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady

Supporting Actor:                     Albert Brooks – Drive

Supporting Actress:                  Jessica Chastain – Tree of Life, The Help & Take Shelter

Cinematography:                       Emmanuel Lubezki – Tree of Life

First Feature:                            Margin Call

Documentary:                           Cave of Forgotten Dreams

Foreign Language :                   A Separation

NYFCC and the Oscars

                                                Oscar Match              Last 10 Yrs                 Last 5 Yrs

Picture                                                40%                             30%                             40%

Director                                              32%                             50%                             60%

Actor                                                   40%                             30%                             60%

Actress                                               37%                             20%                             20%

S. Actor                                               26%                             30%                             40%

S. Actress                                           31%                             40%                             80%

Cinematography                                 29%                             30%                             60%

Screenplay                                          35%                             30%                             20%

Foreign                                               15%                               0%                               0%

Documentary                                      15%                             20%                             40%

The NYFCC gives only 1 award for screenplay:

NYFCC winner is Original                                62%

NYFCC winner is Adapted                              37%

NYFCC Winner matches Oscar                       35%

When NYFCC awards an Original SP              38% Oscar match

When NYFCC awards an Adapted SP            32% Oscar match

The NYFCC doesn’t coincide as closely with the Oscars as some of the precursors that give their awards out a little closer to February.  However, the big thing that jumps out at me this year is the 80% match rate between Supporting Actress and Oscar of the past 5 years.  For some reason, the NYFCC have been getting this category right quite often in recent years.  This year they picked Jessica Chastain, who has a real chance of winning an Oscar.  The problem is which film will they nominate her for?  Too many choices could muddy the water.

Director has a 60% match rate and The Artist’s Michel Hazanavicius got the award this year. Also, the Actor category matches 60% in the last 5 years.  Brad Pitt won the NYFCC, but there are several in the mix.

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