DGA & Best Director winners match 88%.
– On average, 1 of the directors above will not get the Oscar nomination
Bigelow and Spielberg are locks. I feel that Affleck has a firm standing, as well. It seems that Lee and Hooper are the two that teeter on the edge. I give that edge to Hooper, though Lee has quite a lot of support.
Quentin Tarantino (Django Unchained) and David O. Russell (Silver Linings Playbook) are the two waiting in the wings, but it hasn’t been since 2006 that 2 DGA nominated directors didn’t make the Oscar cut (Little Miss Sunshine & Dreamgirls). I could see this happening again in a year that is so wide open. After all, the DGA and Oscar match 3 for 5 nominees about 40% of the time.
It really all seems to be about how people are reacting to Django Unchained. If it’s positive (as it should be), then Tarantino should get the nomination. The question is, will it be over Hooper or Lee? …or both?
Oscar Director Predictions
Ben Affleck – Argo
Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper – Les Miserables
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained