Golden Globes

Golden_Globes_2012The 2012 Golden Globe nominations were announced this morning.  The Golden Globes are more of a popularity contest.  They are sort of like an Oscar predictor that goes with what they think is the obvious choice and in doing so misses the mark.  The Globes are basically a waste of time.  Sometimes they match, but they’re usually just off the mark predictors.  Every year when I watch the Golden Globe awards, I remember why I think they’re pointless.  They pander and they don’t think outside of the box, but in doing so, they match sometimes.

Film – Drama
Argo
Django Unchained
Life of Pi
Lincoln
Zero Dark Thirty

Film – Comedy
The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Les Miserables
Moonrise Kingdom
Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
Silver Linings Playbook

*Best Pictures match Oscar about 60% of the time and when they do match, odds are it’s going to be the Drama winner.  I could see all of the Drama nominees above getting a nom for Best Picture.  Unless Django Unchained continues to do well well going forward, it might be the odd one out.  The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel continues to get love from this awards season, but there’s absolutely no way that it, nor Salmon Fishing in the Yemen get a Best Picture nominations.  Moonrise Kingdom will probably get left out as well.  Not included are: The Master, Beasts of the Southern Wild and Amour.

Director
Ben Affleck – Argo
Kathryn Bigelow – Zero Dark Thirty
Ang Lee – Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg – Lincoln
Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained

*Look out for David O. Russell and Paul Thomas Anderson.  Michael Haneke is a long shot.  Tarantino could be dropped come Oscar time.

Actor – Drama
Daniel Day-Lewis – Lincoln
Richard Gere – Arbitrage
John Hawkes – The Session
Joaquin Phoenix – The Master
Denzel Washington – Flight

*No surprise that Phoenix gets included here.  I don’t see Gere getting the Oscar nom.

Actress – Drama
Jessica Chastain – Zero Dark Thirty
Marion Cotillard – Rust and Bone
Helen Mirren – Hitchcock
Naomi Watts – The Impossible
Rachel Weisz – The Deep Blue Sea

*Weisz got the Best Actress from the NYFC.  I see her getting replaced by Jennifer Lawrence.  Watch out for Quvenzhane Wallis for Beasts of the Southern Wild as an outside shot along with Emmanuelle Riva and Kierra Knightly, possibly.

Actress – Comedy
Emily Blunt – Salmon Fishing in the Yemen
Judi Dench – The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
Maggie Smith – Quartet
Meryl Streep – Hope Springs

*Emily Blunt is the kind of nomination that the Golden Globes are famous for.  They also nominated Maggie Smith for a different film than expected.  Of these nominees, only expect to see Jennifer Lawrence make the cut.

Supporting Actor
Alan Arkin – Argo
Leonardo DiCaprio – Django Unchained
Philip Seymour Hoffman – The Master
Tommy Lee Jones – Lincoln
Christoph Waltz – Django Unchained

*10 of the last 12 years (last 5 years straight), the Golden Globe winner has won the Oscar.  Christoph Watz could technically count as a lead actor and I’m not sure I buy DiCaprio’s performance as Oscar-worthy.  Robert De Niro is missing.  Whatever the case, keep your eye on this category as it is a good Oscar predictor.

Supporting Actress
Amy Adams – The Master
Sally Field – Lincoln
Anne Hathaway – Les Miserables
Helen Hunt – The Sessions
Nicole Kidman – The Paperboy

*For the last 3 years (5 of last 7), the Golden Globe winner has won the Oscar.  I like these nominations.  Nicole Kidman’s inclusion in the awards this week are pretty telling.  Another good Oscar predictor.

Screenplay
Mark Boal – Zero Dark Thirty
Tony Kushner – Lincoln
David O. Russell – Silver Linings Playbook
Quentin Tarantino – Django Unchained
Chris Terrio – Argo

*This is a very strong category.  I like these nominations and anyone could win, though it would be Zero Dark Thirty against Django Unchained and Lincoln against Silver Linings Playbook.

Original Score
Mychael Danna – Life of Pi
Alexandre Desplat – Argo
Dario Marianelli – Anna Karenina
Tom Tykwer – Cloud Atlas
John Williams – Lincoln

*Another great category here, though I wouldn’t be surprised to find The Master’s excellent score  with an Oscar nomination.

Animated
Brave
Frankenweenie
Hotel Transylvania
Rise of the Guardians
Wreck-It Ralph

*Brave all the way, no?

Foreign
Amour
A Royal Affair
The Intouchables
Kon-Tiki
Rust and Bone

*Foreign is a head-case.  Amour is getting all the buzz, but you really just never know with this category.

The Golden Globe awards will be held on Sunday, January 13, 2013.

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