This year presents us with yet another scenario where the film critics in Boston match those in New York while the Los Angeles film critics went with a solid, albeit obscure choice. In 32 years, Boston and New York have matched without LA matching 4 times.
3 of those years went on to win Best Picture (75%).
Boston & New York both picked Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty as their best film of 2012. Los Angeles chose Michael Haneke’s highly praised, Amour. While the LAFC gets props for this pick and Amour gets a bump Oscar-wise, it’s unlikely it will win Best Picture, mainly because it’s a foreign film. Therefore, we can have even more confidence in Zero Dark Thirty.
Last year, the same thing happened. Both the NYFC and the BOFC, along with almost everyone else, chose The Artist as their best film of 2011. The LAFC went with The Descendants. The Artist, of course, won Best Picture.
The main difference between the 2011 Oscar race and this year is that 2011 was a landslide that had been all but decided by the end of November. This year seems to be a closer race, even though Zero Dark Thirty has owned this very young awards season.
Year – BONY – Oscar
2011 – The Artist – The Artist
2007 – No Country for Old Men – No Country for Old Men
2001 – Mulholland Drive – A Beautiful Mind
1991 – The Silence of the Lambs – The Silence of the Lambs
Take Away: Zero Dark Thirty to win Best Picture