The 2013 awards season is really unlike any other, at least since before the days of the blogosphere, in that the Academy
voting isn’t as influenced by the Guild awards, thanks to an early nomination ballot due date. I’m still unsure how the final voting will be effected. Those ballots aren’t due until February 19.
The Producers Guild Awards took place last weekend and Argo was awarded Best Picture, solidifying itself as the forerunner for the Best Picture award. In any other year, this would seal the deal for Argo to win Best Picture on Oscar night, however, I still remain unconvinced.
PGA Winner & Oscar Best Picture match 74%
– PGA & Best Picture have matched for the last 5 years. However, those were normal years when the Academy allowed themselves to be influenced by the Guilds.
– for the 3 years before that, the PGA & Best Picture did not match. 1 of those years (2005) there was the rar
Based on these stats, it would be logical to go with Argo to win Best Picture, but I will hold out for the Directors Guild winner. And even then, I still may not be ready to concede.e director/picture split. Ang Lee won Best Director and was the favorite for Picture, but lost to Crash. Ang Lee is nominated for Life of Pi for directing.
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PGA Nominees
Zero Dark Thirty
Silver Linings Playbook
Argo
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Life of Pi
Beasts of the Southern Wild
Moonrise Kingdom
Skyfall
75% of the PGA nominees are also nominated for the Oscar for Best Picture. In the last 3 years (10 PGA nominees each), 80% of the PGA nominees were nominated for Best Picture.
There’s no way to know the exact number of films the Academy will nominate and I will assume that it will be greater than 5, but less than 10 and not equal to either.
Going by the 75% rule, we would have to assume that 7 or 8 PGA nominees will be nominated for Oscar. However, we cannot rule out the inevitable 1 or 2 films nominated for Best Picture that did not receive a PGA nomination. Therefore, we could be looking at 9 nominees.
– 7-8 films from PGA
– 1-2 films not nominated for PGA
From PGA
…so here’s how I see it. I see 5 sure-fire nominees:
Zero Dark Thirty, Silver Linings Playbook, Argo, Les Miserables & Lincoln.
Life of Pi and Django Unchained will round at the top 7.
If there are 8 from PGA, then I see Moonrise Kingdom and Beasts of the Southern Wild fighting it out for that token Indie spot, making it 8.
Skyfall will not be nominated, even though the Academy loves them some Sam Mendes and as well they should!
Outside PGA
Look out for The Master to process late and Flight to swoop in. Be prepared for The Impossible to rise out of the depths and make a big splash. Also, in case it happens, Amour.
Best Picture nominees based on PGA stats
Zero Dark Thirty
Silver Linings Playbook
Argo
Les Miserables
Lincoln
if 6) Django Unchained
if 7) Life of Pi
if 8) Beasts of the Southern Wild
if 9) The Master
if 10) The Impossible
Citizen Craig 