The WGA and Oscar have NEVER matched 5 for 5 for either Original or Adapted Screenplays.
81% of WGA nominees go on to be nominated for Oscar Best Picture.
– 36% comes from Original
– 45% comes from Adapted
WGA Original Screenplay
Flight
Looper
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
60% (3 of 5) of Original WGA’s get nominated for Oscar.
Zero Dark Thirty, Moonrise Kingdom and The Master are happening. I see Looper staying and Flight getting replaced by the WGA ineligible, Django Unchained. This is fine the way it is, but if I had to pick a 2nd one to drop, then it would be Looper getting replaced by Amour, Middle of Nowhere, Brave or Promised Land. I like the 4/5, though.
Original Oscar Prediction
Django Unchained
Looper
The Master
Moonrise Kingdom
Zero Dark Thirty
WGA Adapted Screenplay
Argo
Life of Pi
Lincoln
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Silver Linings Playbook
71% (3-4 of 5) of Adapted WGA’s get nominated for Oscar.
I like these nominations, but they’ve never matched 5/5 with Oscar, so I feel like something has to change. Plus, there are so many films that WGA has deemed ineligible that the Academy could vote in. Watch out for Beasts of the Southern Wild, Cloud Atlas, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel, Bernie and Les Miserables, especially if it sweeps the nominations. The problem is; who gets replaced? I see Argo as being the first to go with The Perks of Being a Wallflower coming up 2nd only because there needs to be an independent representative. If that’s the case, then Beasts of the Southern Wild could replace Perks of Being a Wallflower and Les Miserables could replace Argo. Something about that just doesn’t feel right so I’m going to say that this will be the first ever 5/5 year.
Adapted Oscar Prediction
Lincoln
Silver Linings Playbook
The Perks of Being a Wallflower
Life of Pi
Argo
Citizen Craig 