2012 Nomination Predictions

In the last 3 years overall, I have accurately predicted 72% of the Oscar nominations.  I expect that to drastically change this year.

There is going to have to be a lot more thought, predicting and just outright guessing this year since the Academy changed their voting system.  Steve Pond writes a great breakdown of how the voting system works this year.


I will revise my predictions up until the nominees are announced on January 24, 2012.

71.1% Accuracy 

Picture

1) The Artist

2) The Descendants

3) Hugo

4) The Help

5) Midnight in Paris

if 6) The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

if 7) Moneyball

if 8) War Horse

if 9) The Tree of Life

if 10) Bridesmaids

* Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy, The Ides of March, Harry Potter & the Deathly Hallows 2


Director

 – Michel Hazanavicius – The Artist

 – Alexander Payne – The Descendants

 – Martin Scorsese – Hugo

 – Woody Allen – Midnight in Paris

 – Terrence Malick – The Tree of Life

David Fincher – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo ,  Steven Spielberg – War Horse, Nicolas Winding Refn – Drive, Tomas Alfredson – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

Actor

 – Jean Dujardin – The Artist

 – George Clooney – The Descendants

 – Brad Pitt – Moneyball

 – Gary Oldman – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

 – Leonardo DiCaprio – J. Edgar

*Michael Shannon – Take Shelter, Michael Fassbendar – Shame

Actress

 – Glen Close – Albert Nobbs

 – Viola Davis – The Help

 – Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady

 – Michelle Williams – My Week With Marilyn

 – Tilda Swinton – We Need to Talk About Kevin

*Elizabeth Olson – Martha Marcy May Marlene, Kirsten Dunst – Melancholia, Anna Paquin – Margaret

Supporting Actor

 – Albert Brooks – Drive

 – Jonah Hill – Moneyball

 – Nick Nolte – Warrior

 – Christopher Plummer – Beginners

 – Kenneth Branagh – My Week With Marilyn

*Brad Pitt – The Tree of Life, Armie Hammer – J. Edgar


Supporting Actress

 – Shailene Woodley – The Descendants

 – Berenice Bejo – The Artist

 – Jessica Chastain – The Help

 – Melissa McCarthy – Bridesmaids

 – Octavia Spencer – The Help

* Viola Davis – The Help, Janet McTeer – Albert Nobbs, Sareh Bayat – A Separation, Carey Mulligan – Shame, Jessica Chastain – The Tree of Life/Take Shelter

Adapted Screenplay

 – Moneyball – Zaillian, Sorkin

 – The Descendants – Payne, Faxon

 – Hugo – John Logan

 – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – Steven Zaillian

 – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy – O’Connor, Straughan

*The Help, We Need to Talk About Kevin, Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close, Drive, War Horse, Jane Eyre, A Dangerous Method

Original Screenplay

 – The Artist – Michel Hazanavicius

 – Young Adult – Diablo Cody

 – Midnight in Paris – Woody Allen

 – Bridesmaids – Wiig, Mumolo

 – A Separation – Asghar Farhadi

*Win Win, 50/50, Tree of Life


Original Score

 – The Artist – Ludovic Bource

 – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy – Alberto Iglesias

 – War Horse – John Williams

 – Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 2 – Alexandre Desplat

 – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo – Trent Reznor, Atticus Ross

*Alexandre Desplat – The Tree of Life, Howard Shore – Hugo/A Dangerous Method


Cinematography

 – Guillaume Schiffman – The Artist

 –  Hoyte van Hoytema – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

 – Robert Richardson – Hugo

 – Emmanuel Lubezki – The Tree of Life

 – Janusz Kaminski – War Horse

*Melancholia, Drive, The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo


Film Editing

 – The Artist

 – The Descendants

 – Hugo 

 – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

 – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

* Moneyball, Midnight in Paris, War Horse, Drive


Sound Editing

 – The Adventures of Tintin

 – Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

 – Drive

 – The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo

 – Super 8

* Moneyball, X-Men: First Class, Thor, Captain America, 


Sound Mixing

– Hugo

– Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

– Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

– Super 8

– Moneyball

* Transformers: DOTM, X-Men: First Class, Thor, Captain America


Art Direction:

 – The Artist

 – Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

 – Hugo

 – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

 – Captain America

* The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo, The Help, War Horse, Tree of Life, Jane Eyre


Costume Design:

 – The Artist

 – Jane Eyre

 – Hugo

 – Tinker Tailor Soldier Spy

 – The Help

* Tree of Life, Captain America, War Horse, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 2

Make-up:

 – The Artist

 – Albert Nobbs

 – Hugo

* Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows 2, The Iron Lady, Gainsbourg: A Heroic Life, Anonymous


Visual Effects:

 – Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2

 – Transformers: Dark of the Moon

 – Rise of the Planet of the Apes

 – Pirates of the Caribbean: On Stranger Tides

 – Hugo

* X-Men: First Class, Captain America, The Tree of Life, Mission Impossible


Animated

 – The Adventures of Tintin

 – Rango

 – Cars 2

 – Kung Fu Panda 2

 – Puss In Boots

*Arthur Christmas

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