ADGA Nominees
Period
Anna Karenina
Argo
Django Unchained
Les Miserables
Lincoln
Fantasy
Cloud Atlas
Life of PI
Prometheus
The Dark Knight Rises
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey
Contemporary
Flight
Skyfall
The Best Exotic Marigold hotel
The Impossible
Zero Dark Thirty
3-Category System
In a 3-Category System, the ADG and the Oscar nominees match 77% of the time.
This is a low match rate considering the fact that the ADG nominates 15 films to the Oscar’s 5. The films that DO match tend to come from the Period and Fantasy categories of the ADG. Of the Oscar nominated films:
– 47% come from the Period ADG Category
– 30% come from the Fantasy ADG Category
– 0% come from the Contemporary ADG Category
– 23% were not nominated for ADG
Based on the stats above we could assume the following category distribution:
– 2-3 Period films to Oscar
– 1-2 Fantasy films to Oscar
– 0-1 Contemporary films to Oscar
– 0-1 not nominated for ADG
Art Direction Oscar Predictions
Anna Karenina (Period)
Lincoln (Period)
Les Miserables (Period)
The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey (Fantasy)
The Master (Period)
I can’t imagine Anna Karenina not getting a nomination. That design was sick. Also, a world where Lincoln and Les Miserables aren’t nominated is hard to imagine. That’s 3 films from Period, which equals the most Oscar-nominated from that category since the 3-category system began in 2006. From Fantasy, Cloud Atlas, Life of Pi and The Hobbit are all on the brink, though with the Tolkien fatigue going around I wouldn’t be surprised if The Hobbit was left out. Nothing from Contemporary catches my eye.
For those not nominated, there are quite a few. I think The Master will be the 4th Period film to get in, however, in keeping with the past statistics, watch out for the Fantasy films: Snow White and the Huntsman and Beasts of the Southern Wild.
Citizen Craig 